Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
