A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
